I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. While the long-term uptrend is intact we have shifted into a sideways MT. The key drivers of the USD remain the divergence in growth and monetary policy along with trade with Canada, China and Europe. The Fed remains on the path outlined by the dot plots to continue to hike rates and data is consistent with this view. Progress has been made with Canada, but no trade deal has been reached yet. President Trump has rejected Europe’s most recent trade offer. Another 200 Billion in Tariffs on goods from China is likely to go into effect very soon. Other considerations include emerging market issues which has seen risk-off flows and a strong US stock market. NFP and plenty of other data coming up too. Continue to look for buying opportunities.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. USD weakness followed by a bout of optimism about a potential Brexit deal happening has driven the pair into a sideways MT. The sell-off starting in April this year has seen close to a 2000 pip move. If we do see a shift in sentiment with regards to either a Brexit deal getting done or it not being the end of the world if there is no deal, then there could be plenty of upside in the GBP. We may be seeing the first signs of this and you can seen some bottoming price action on the crosses. Note that UK bond yields are also supporting the currency. Wait for now.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. The pair bounced on the back of a recovery in risk over the last couple of weeks, but with more Emerging market issues and the possibly of more Tariffs on China, risk-off flows have us firmly in the middle of a sideways MT. I prefer to look for buying opportunities.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend– MT is bear normal. The Aussie is impacted by risk-off flows both from internal political issues and the external drivers of China and emerging markets, as well as a strong USD. The long-term bear MT is intact. There is an RBA meeting this week though there is nothing new expected to come from it. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We have now shifted into a sideways volatile MT. Overall the picture remains bearish with concerns around Italy and Turkey having the potential to blow up further. Data has not been great and there is no desire to end the loose monetary policy that is in place. Look for selling opportunities.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend– MT is sideways normal. While there was a pullback in the pair on the back of USD weakness, poor data (business confidence) and general risk-off concerns have resumed the bear MT. Continue to sell.
- Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT bear normal. The swisse has been benefiting from risk-off flows due to emerging market issues. Continue to sell.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. We remain in the sideways MT. There is a real push to get a NAFTA deal done, but its not quite happening as fast as market participants might like. Watch out though because if a deal is announced the adjustment in the currency price will likely be quite rapid. The BOC meets this week and they may hike rates, if they do CAD should strengthen as its not fully priced in yet. There has been some weaker GDP data and considering NATFA concerns the BOC may opt for a “hawkish hold” instead.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bull normal. We have a busted break of the key .90 level and the formation of a weekly reversal pattern. EURGBP does not spend a lot of time up here and if we see sentiment shift on Brexit or Eurozone issue sour then there is plenty of downside available. You can considering looking for long-term shorts.
- Sell EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Buy GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait USDSGD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait USDCNH. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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