Monthly Macro Risk Monitor – 1 Aug 18
My greatest discovery was that a man must study underlying conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities. – Jesse Livermore
In this recurring monthly analysis, we will look at three global risk factors in order to assess the current market state and attempt to foresee risks on the horizon. The factors that we will be using, in order of weight, are:
- Global Monetary Policy
- Global Volatility
- Global PMI readings
Together, they can assist us in shaping up underlying macro conditions, so we don’t get caught off guard by some change in market dynamics that was foreseeable.
Global Monetary Policy Stance
We use Global Monetary Policy to evaluate inflation risks, deflation risks, and interest rate risk.
Monetary policy has remained rather stable in 2018 thus far but the FED will continue to hike and being the Central Bank of the world’s reserve currency, other CB’s will need to follow, in due time. RBA has openly said that the next move, whenever it will happen, is UP. The ECB is on a (slow) tapering path. The BOE will likely hike tomorrow. The Bank of Canada will possibly hike in October. We are on a (slow) hiking path and rates are rising.
Global Volatility Meter
We use the Global Volatility Monitor to capture economic growth risks and liquidity risks.Since we are tracking the implied volatility on the S&P 500, the Eurostoxx and Crude Oil, we can see the composite indicator as “the cost of hedging a price decline” in each market.
Volatility conditions remain inconclusive right now, since we are in no man’s land. Monetary policy and PMIs are more influential in this context.
Global PMI Monitor
- US Manufacturing PMI lower at 58.1
- UK Manufacruting PMI lower at 54.0
- EU Manufacturing PMI lower at 55.1
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI lower at 50.8
- AU Manufacturing PMI lower at 52.4
We use the Markit/JPM Global PMI analysis as a gauge for economic growth risks, inflation risks and deflation risks. PMIs are known to be a leading indicator for GDP growth rates.
We had to do something a bit different this month, since the JPM Global PMI has not been issued yet. We took the recent July PMIs from key countries and suspect the JPM model will also show a slowdown from the previous month. This confirms that global growth expectations are slowing down.
To Sum Up
Our Macro Risk Monitor (MRM) is currently showing a slow but consistent tightening of monetary policy, which has yet to translate into heightened volatility. Global growth expectations are slowing but PMIs are still above the 50 mark.
Our current environment remains benign for cyclical assets, but the regime change seems to be approaching swiftly.
About The Macro Risk Monitor
What we are doing is neither new nor original. Anyone with a basic comprehension of macroeconomic theory, and a bit of real world experience, can do the same thing. We’re just doing it for you. What follows is a brief explanation of why we are monitoring precisely Monetary Policy, Volatility and Purchasing Managers’ Index.
- During periods of real (non-inflationary) growth, the main cyclical classes (Developed and Emerging Market Equities, Real Estate, High Yield Bonds) tend to have low volatility.
- Vice versa, during periods of economic uncertainty or outright contraction, cyclical assets have high volatility.
- However, we can also have inflationary growth, which is the best environment for Commodities (Energy, Industrial Metals).
When volatility is high, or global growth expectations (measured via the PMI) are low and monetary policy is tight/tightening, there is a collision of risk factors that produces a high uncertainty/high risk environment that is usually only favourable to fixed income and counter-cyclical assets.
When volatility is low, or global growth expecatations (measured via the PMI) are high and monetary policy is loose/loosening, there is a combination of easing factors that produces a low uncertainty/low risk environment that is favourable to cyclical asset classes.
By using just these three measures, we can create discrete market environments that can assist in selecting the right asset class to target given the current situation.
If any of this is a bit foreign or complex, our Forex Fundamentals Mastery course can bring you up to speed.
About the Author
Justin is a Forex trader and Coach. He is co-owner of www.fxrenew.com, a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial), or get FREE access to the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders. If you like his writing you can subscribe to the newsletter for free.
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